Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Where is Madoff money?

I’ve got a simple question: Where is Madoff money? Who answers? Nobody. Isn’t it strange? Something smells very fishy. He didn’t act as a one person and needed some help and some other guys still keep billions of dollars. Will America stay corrupt or will you find some new Eliot Ness? I hope there are some honest people out there. I hope.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Why do you buy stocks at 130 P/E?

Yesterday I found out that the average P/E for S&P500 is … 130. You can check it here.

Here comes the question. Why do you buy stock at 130 P/E?

Do you believe in such a strong recovery in American economy? Will profits catch up with those crazy prices in the market? I don’t think so.

I just follow big speculators who received money from your pockets and pump up the prices.

Exit levels are 925 and 870 points respectively depending on your risk tolerance.
It’s still pure gambling not investing and it’s hard to believe in V shape full recovery.

However, we see a lot of money created just out of thin air and the funds must be invested somewhere. I agree that even some expensive stocks are better than paper money but they seem a bit too expensive.

The risk is increasing. Technically it’s possible for S&P500 to reach say 1100 points. Fundamentally it would be a kind of madness.

Why do I buy stocks at 130 P/E? I like the orchestra playing on the “Titanic” deck. Nice tunes but I’ve got my raft ready to jump in.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

What to do with stocks?

Many people are wondering now what to do with stocks. Buy more, sell, do nothing?

What is the best strategy?
Well, nobody can predict the future correctly.

However, personally I would follow trends. I see a support level at 930 points looking at S&P500 but any investor who is not a trader or a speculator should wait and see until it doesn’t go below 875. This is my exit level.

I see a possibility of getting to 1014 or even 1100 and that’s all about it.
In my opinion this rally has no fundamentals but I insist that our main goal in the markets is to make money and not save the world.

If you want to help the poor just send a cheque to some charity. If you don’t like authorities, choose different ones next time in the elections. That’s it.
I disagree with the policy of dealing with the crisis but if the stocks are getting more and more expensive why don’t we try and make a few more bucks?

Of course the best bets are still commodities and stocks connected with them. Maybe some financials? Here, I’m not sure because of the risk.

Finally, I strongly recommend anybody who asks questions what to do with stocks to work on his or her strategy which should include all possibilities what market may do. There are only three ways: going up, down or staying flat. Be prepared for the movements earlier and know what you’ll do in advance and you’ll be fine.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Follow 200 Moving Average and do what you see

Last week S&P500 crossed 200 Moving Average for the first time since December 2007. What it means? It’s “buy” signal. I don’t like it because we’re observing V shape recovery in stock market and you should be very suspicious but if the market says that the bear market is done I just stick to the market not your thoughts.
In fact for me the situation looks very obvious. I’ve bought some stocks and will wait what happens next. I feel quite comfortable because now I can get out fast if S&P500 goes below 920. In other case I’m waiting till 1000 or better 1014 (Fibonacci retracement).

Well, personally I don’t believe that the crisis is over but remember to trade what you see not what you think.